![]() If markets are efficient, then the only way they can be beaten is by knowing something that everyone else does not. This stems from an efficient markets view of the world. ![]() Investors appear to believe that they need to know more than everyone else in order to outperform. Montier suggests that anchoring bias and over-confidence cause investors to continue relying on forecasts in their investment decisions. ![]() Sin 1: ForecastingĪn enormous amount of evidence suggests that we simply cannot forecast. While the full report is 105 pages long and can be found here, we will be summarising this report in this article today. ![]() It covers the most common behavioural biases among investors and makes for a timeless, enlightening read. Over a decade ago, James Montier penned a white paper titled Seven Sins of Fund Management. ![]()
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